NGX Market Wrap – Monday, August 4, 2025

Market Highlights: The NGX All Share Index surged by 1.99% today, closing at 141,263.05, as robust buying sent a ripple across risk assets and ETF segments. The Year-To-Date (YTD) return stands tall at 39.63%, reflecting sustained enthusiasm even in the new quarter. Market turnover exploded by 239.37% (₦18.15B vs. ₦5.35B prior), on the back of unusually high trade volumes (up nearly threefold to 752.49M shares). Breadth remained strongly positive at 2.16x (54 advancers vs. 25 decliners), led by a dramatic 61.88% jump in VETIVA S & P Nigeria Sovereign Bond ETF (VSPBONDETF). However, the currency market offered little cheer, with the Naira sliding 0.03% to ₦1,531/$.

Significant Market Trends

• Breadth: A 2.16x advancer-decliner ratio signals robust risk-on appetite, especially with volume gains in 70 stocks.
• Turnover Spike: The leap in turnover (+239.37%) and volume highlights heavy institutional activity (64.41% of volume, 83.92% of value), centered on the financial sector.
• Unusual Volume:
  • CONHALLPLC (+9.84%, 368.66% of 90-day avg vol), UNIVINSURE (+5.56%, 273.58% vol), VERITASKAP (+9.35%, 245.25% vol), and REGALINS (+5.95%, 252.10% vol) – all insurers under aggressive accumulation.
• ETF Swings: ETFs dominated both gainers (VSPBONDETF +61.88%) and losers (GREENWETF, -10.00%), hinting at active fund flows and possible asset allocation shifts.

Top Gainers & Losers (%Chg/%Chg)

Key Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Surge: +239% in turnover signals strong fresh institutional inflows, most visible across financial and insurance stocks. Historically, such spikes are often followed by a volatile consolidation window as positions are digested.
• Breadth Trends: The outsized number of gainers, in tandem with aggressive buying in ETFs and insurers, suggests risk acceptance across large and small caps.
• Unusual Volume: Insurers (CONHALLPLC, UNIVINSURE, VERITASKAP, REGALINS) all saw buying volume >2.5x the 90-day average—a possible start of a sector-wide rerating. Momentum plays should monitor these for sustained follow-through.
• YTD Winners: The overlap of VSPBONDETF and VERITASKAP in both today's and YTD top gainers lists reinforces their ongoing momentum. Caution: many YTD movers are crowd favorites and susceptible to sharp mean reversions if sentiment flips.
• Bullish Momentum Table:
  • VSPBONDETF, CHAMPION, ELLAHLAKES, CONHALLPLC, NAHCO—all closed above their 15DMA, indicating strong technical buying signals. Only UPDC approaches overbought RSI; most have room for further rally.
  • Insurance sector dominates bullish signals (AIICO, WAPIC, CONHALLPLC, UNIVINSURE).
• Bearish Momentum Table:
  • ETI, CWG and MAYBAKER broke beneath 15DMA, indicating caution. Notably, ETI is on the day's losers and bearish technical list, amplifying its short-term downside risk.
  • STANBICETF30 ETF and VFDGROUP also slipped, revealing profit taking in previously strong names.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREWERIES (CHAMPION): RSI 54.4 (neutral), bullish MACD crossover, YTD -9.8%. Despite languishing performance, technicals suggest a potential reversal. Contrarians may consider early accumulation if sector support emerges.
• JOHNHOLT PLC: Strong negative YTD, on both today's and YTD losers, but MACD histogram turning slightly less negative; traders could watch for capitulation bottoming.
• ETI: High RSI, but price broke below 15DMA and was a top loser today. Mixed signals call for close monitoring.

Sector Heatmaps & Institutional/Retail Activity

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Play Radar)

• Note: High-yield, low-beta names with bullish signals (e.g., CONHALLPLC) should attract defensive flows, especially in uncertain conditions.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• FCMB: Top institutional trade name (8.89% by volume), with sustained buying. ZENITHBANK also shows high institutional flows (20.17% of trade value).
• MTNN remains a favorite among both retail and institutional, but institutional trades mostly dominate value (₦561.5M institutional vs. ₦154.2M retail).
• Trade value and volume skewed toward financials; institutions consolidating positions in leading bank and insurance stocks.

High Dividend Yield in Bullish/Bearish Tables

• AIICO: 4.13% yield, part of bullish momentum cross; higher beta means strong upside potential but more volatility.
• CONHALLPLC (2.08% yield) also featured; accumulating in risk-off environments.
• No high-dividend names on bearish table—signaling current defensive appetite supports such stocks.

Actionable Takeaways for Traders

• Opportunities: Consider scaling into insurance leaders with bullish crossovers and unusual volumes (CONHALLPLC, UNIVINSURE, VERITASKAP, AIICO).
• Caution: YTD favorites (VSPBONDETF, VERITASKAP, UACN) may soon face profit-taking; rising RSI on many suggests trail stops to lock in gains.
• Monitor: Names with both high institutional flows and positive technicals (FCMB, ZENITHBANK) often foreshadow sector-wide rallies.
• Contrarian Play: CHAMPION and ETI—keep on radar as both sport mixed signals and could snap back on short covering.
• Watch ETFs: Surging flows may continue as asset allocators move capital rapidly in/out of sectors—intraday reversals possible.

YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

Weekly Trend Recap (Prior Week)

Last week was characterized by moderate oscillation as investors weighed Q2 earnings and macro risk. The ASI posted a net gain, but sector rotation was evident—money flowed out of late-cyclical names into defensives like insurance and select financials. ETF activity picked up steam toward week's end, laying the groundwork for today's explosive flows.

Market Activity & Trades Summaries: Institutional vs Retail Patterns

• Institutional Investors: Accounted for only 39.7% of trades but a dominant 64.4% of volume and a massive 83.92% of value.
  • Focus: Large caps— FCMB, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, UBA all feature as top institutional trades. Heavy presence here often signals intermediate trend recognition.
• Retail Investors: Contribute 60.3% of trade count, but just 35.6% of volume and 16% of value—highlighting small lot trading.
  • Favorites: MTNN leads by deal count, followed by ACCESSCORP, UBA, DANGSUGAR, ZENITHBANK—indicative of speculative churn and momentum chasing.
• Correlation: Institutional clusters prime early sector rallies (FCMB, ZENITHBANK), while retail follows momentum cues (AIICO, VERITASKAP, DANGSUGAR). Similar symbols across both (e.g., MTNN, ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP) reinforce conviction moves.
• Hidden Insight: Watch for a switch in institutional flows: if they begin selling top retail favorites (especially insurance), reversal risk rises.

• Insurers sweep both volume and technical breakouts—expect continued rotation into this sector barring external shock.
• YTD momentum leaders attract both institutional and retail activity, but high RSI readings suggest some fatigue—trail stops recommended.
• ETF volatility is a double-edged sword: sharp moves may offer tactical entries/exits for nimble funds.
• Dividend+Defensive stocks (low beta, high yield) accumulating volume in risk-off mini-windows; best for cautious portfolios.
• Stocks like CHAMPION and ETI with conflicting technicals warrant close monitoring for snapback rallies or deeper corrections.